Archive for year 2012
Why Facebook will become the most dangerous company on earth
Apr 10th
Within the next 60 days, an event will occur that may be the most devastating development in the young history of social media and for the businesses and individuals who love it so much.
Facebook is going to become a publicly-traded company.
If you have ever worked for a public company you can relate to what I am about to say. If you haven’t you’ll have to trust me.
The pressure of “public”
The entire tone of Facebook and its strategy is about to change in ways that I believe could portend desperation and disaster. Instead of managing for a long-term vision, becoming a public company creates an inexorable and relentless pressure to meet quarterly sales goals. If you have ever been an executive in a publicy-traded company, other than hearing “A crew from 60 Minutes is at the door,” there is probably no greater pressure in business than the demand to grow, grow, grow the revenues — To “beat the street,” without exception, without fail.
Maybe it will will take a few months, maybe it will take a year or more, but inevitably the marching orders of Facebook executives will be determined by this constant drumbeat of “more, higher, faster.”
Now, what is the source of Facebook’s growing revenues? You and me.
Virtually the entire economic model of Facebook is based on a single tactic — collect as much personal information about you as possible as a way to sell highly-targeted ads. So for Facebook to succeed, it simply must collect increasing amounts of information about you. More information = more ad revenues. Pretty simple.
Through this lens, we can now view Facebook’s new Timeline innovation as a clever move. The company encourages us to post and share everything about our lives, which will lead to more advertising opportunities. And, you can be assured that every new feature and innovation will be aimed at two things: 1) collect more information and 2) create “stickiness” so you spend more time on the site (to share information and view ads).
Is this sustainable?
So we have to consider — Is this relentless collection of information and selling of ads sustainable in a way that meets Wall Street’s expectations for continuous and aggressive growth?
At least in the near term, Facebook’s prospects seem bright. They are just starting to mine Timeline information. The possibility of organic growth in new countries like China present vast opportunities for data collection and advertising.
But will we reach a saturation point where it becomes impossible for Facebook to squeeze any more information from us? Will we reach a day when Facebook’s insatiable need for data becomes annoying and invasive? Is there a theoretical limit to information gathering? Is there an upper limit to the amount of time people will spend on Facebook?
The other collision point is that the advertising model is in transition. Smartphones are already the first screen of Internet access for 28 percent of Americans and in some parts of the world (like the Middle East), it is already over 50 percent. Compare how many ads you see displayed on your computer versus the smartphone version of Facebook and you will begin to see the crunch Facebook will be facing.
Google, which went public in 2004, faces exactly the same problem of course and I think the pressure is starting to show. I found it extremely odd when the company (who professes to never be “evil”) knowingly took a detour around anti-ad-tracking features on Apple’s iPhone to spy on our private information. They stopped the practice only after being caught by the Wall Street Journal. Apple vowed to stop the Google’s shady practices.
Why would Google do something this stupid? Well, by now you already know the answer — as a public company, Google is under incredible pressure to collect our private information to sell ads.
Similarly, executive bonuses are tied to the success of Google +. What kind of behavior will this drive at the company, when vast personal fortunes are at stake … and the platform increasingly appears to be a ghost town?
What will be the answer to the pressure for growth?
This is a glimpse of what we will one day see from Facebook, too. Undoubtedly they will look for adjacencies and new sources of revenue but nothing in the foreseeable future will come close to making a dent in their reliance on ad revenues.
At some point, Facebook will be faced with a reality — the well of personal information will be tapped dry. The opportunity to create advertising impressions will slow. Mark Zuckerberg will face unimaginable pressure from Wall Street and his shareholders. His company will have to find new ways to turn their vast resource — our personal information — into new sources of profits.
And at that point, Facebook will become the most dangerous company on earth.
How does this perspective land on you?
An inside view of the blogging process
Apr 8th
Mitch Joel recently threw down the the gauntlet and challenged a number of bloggers to blog about how they blog (does that make sense?) I highly recommend you read his original article called “Watching me Blog.” I only caution you about trying to match Mitch’s pace. There is Mitch, and then there is the rest of us!
Here is an insight into my typical blogging process:
THE BIRTH OF A BLOG POST
I am constantly bombarded with ideas so collecting inspiration for topics is a continuous process. I may have an idea from something I see on TV, something I read, or a question from a student in class. The trick is to have the discipline to capture these ideas when they occur. As soon as I can, I record these topics as a headline in WordPress, nothing more. That way, when it is time to blog, I have a wide selection of potential topics.
I currently have about 70 ideas in the hopper. Some of them will never see the light of day. Maybe some of them will be combined or trashed. Some of them you will see this week!
TIME TO WRITE
I usually do all of my blogging for the week in about a 3-4 hour period on a weekend morning. It has to be quiet with no distractions. In this period my goal is to write at least two blog posts for the upcoming week. Usually I can write though an idea quickly but sometimes it takes adding and massaging over a couple of weeks to flesh out a big new idea.
During this quiet time I JUST WRITE. I don’t necessarily spend a lot of time trying to be perfect right off the bat. Editing and refining can come later.
I also try to write ahead if I can so I have a few completed posts in case something happens and I can’t blog for some personal reason. I have about 10 posts in reserve. I rarely write during the week unless there is a short-term topical opportunity.
FINAL FLOURISHES
On Sunday night I’ll figure out what posts I’m going to publish for the week. I’ll take a last look at these pieces, do a final edit, and then “decorate” them with illustrations or graphics as needed. I don’t often get feedback on the funny illustrations I come up with, but in my mind this is one of the fun reasons to come to the {grow} blog and it is a creative challenge for me to come up with something that will make you snicker. My rule is that if I can’t execute an illustration idea in 10 minutes, I move on to something else. I have to be very disciplined about the time I spend on blogging.
At this point I’ll also spend some more time on the headline. Headlines are so important — more important than the actual blog copy because if you don’t grab your reader’s attention, they’ll never even get to the copy. I find headlines very difficult to write. They must be accurate, descriptive, interesting and most of all, “tweetable!” You have to make your posts easy to share!
PUBLISH
I have never posted an article that I have been completely happy with, and many times I’m a little nervous about what the reaction might be. Ultimately it takes courage to be an effective blogger, to put yourself out there, to be confident enough to be imperfect, and to take your licks.
My decision on what to publish is often determined by my work schedule. If I think a post will generate a lot of comments, I won’t publish that on a day that I can’t pay attention to the comment section. I post from one of the amazing {grow} contributing columnists on Wednesdays and a cartoon on Friday so I know I will have at least those days completely free to do client work.
COMMENTS
The best part of the blog is the community commentary. Here is my philosophy on comments:
- Comments are an opportunity to celebrate the people in your community.
- When people offer you a gift of their precious time to provide a comment, it only makes sense to give them a gift back and at least say “thank you.” I try to acknowledge most comments.
- Comments build community. This is where you create meaningful connections. I have written a lot about power and influence on the social web. In my estimation, the blog comment section is where the action is (and ironically it is not considered in a Klout score!).
- If you put yourself out there, you’re not going to connect with every person, every time, even in a community of well-intentioned professionals. Don’t be thrown off-center by criticism. It’s a sign that you took risks. Take the high rode, stay positive.
Secret Words. A {growtoon}.
Apr 6th
Join the growtoonists each Friday for a humorous take on marketing, social media, and current business events.
Joey Strawn is a social media strategist that loves enjoying a good book and then drawing in it. Check him out on Twitter: @joey_strawn
Three careers that will dominate social media (and it’s not what you think)
Apr 5th
I’m a marketing guy. And boy I love it. There’s nothing I enjoy more than a great case study! Well, almost nothing.
But as I look to the future, I’m not sure marketing, sales, advertising, or even PR are going to be the leading career paths for somebody I would hire to lead a social organization transformation. Of course these areas are important — and will continue to be — but if I’m growing a corporate social media competency, here is who I would be hiring in my company:
1) Journalism. The social web’s need for content and storytellers is insatiable. I was recently on a panel with a dean of a large journalism school and he said they are having record enrollment. Why? Where are these people getting jobs? Alternative media. The ability to rapidly crank out superb content is at the heart of any new media strategy. As the information density of the social web continues to escalate to unbearable levels, the ability to stand out through scintillating content will be essential.
2) HR/Change management. You want to know the biggest problem companies face in finding social media success? It’s not budget or talent or vision. It’s corporate culture. Every large company is creaking and churning toward a reaction-oriented, empowered culture that can succeed in this environment. This change is going to take some gut-wrenching organizational shifts and, as we are already seeing, the jettisoning of entire teams of people who don’t have the right skills to make the transition. HR needs to be in the middle of this transition — and move these companies forward quickly!
3) Statisticians. If I were hiring a new social media marketing employee today, it would be a statistician, not a marketing major. Marketing has always been about finding insight from data but in the past that data was pretty difficult and expensive to come by for most businesses. We are entering the era of big data where marketing — even at small companies — will be ruled by math. The lack of basic understanding of statistics and analytics by social web “experts” and SEO consultants today is shocking. But make no mistake, this is where the treasure lies. I think it would be easier to teach marketing to a statistician than the other way around. Marketing success will come to those who will be able to tease the most insight from data, so I’m putting my money on the numbers folks.
I know this is unconventional thinking but I think if you look at the mega-trends, it makes sense. What do you think?
Welcome to {grow}
You’re in marketing for one reason: Grow.
Grow your company, reputation, customers, impact, profits. Grow yourself. This is a community that will help. It will stretch your mind, connect you to fascinating people, and provide some fun along the way. I am so glad you’re here.
-Mark SchaeferFollow Mark
Groups We Believe In
