The anti-prediction of 2012 social media predictions
Dec 28th
This is the time of year for predictions and it’s all starting to sound like yada-yada to me. Probably you too?
But how many bloggers go back and actually let you know how they did with last year’s predictions? Let’s start there, and then I will add four surprising 2012 predictions of my own at the end.
Here are social media predictions I made throughout 2011 and my grade for my guess!
Google+ will not be the Facebook killer. People went crazy when I predicted this, especially since at that point I had not even tried it! Doesn’t matter. The switching costs are too high among Facebook’s core audience. I think Google+ is important and it will survive but it will not upend Facebook. Am I right? Too early to tell, but I think I am trending correct on this one. I’ll have to give myself an incomplete.
Quora is not the next big thing. In early 2011 I was the lone voice it seemed not piling on the Robert Scoble bandwagon. Scoble had declared that Quora would replace blogging and was more useful and elegant than Facebook and Twitter. I said no, there was not going to be a Quorgasm — it was too easily gamed, too noisy and too difficult to navigate. Yes, I was right. Grade = A +
QR Codes will soon be obsolete — Many people predicted that QR codes would rock the world in 2011 simply because they were so popular in Japan. That’s the first mistake. Never assume what takes in Japan will take someplace else. I said that QR codes are the eight-track tapes of our generation because will be a mis-applied, over-used gimmick and people will end up not trusting them. I saw an article last week declaring QR Codes dead so it is too early to tell but I think I am trending positive on this. I’ll give myself at least a B.
Augmented reality gets big. I was a little ahead of my time on this. I thought AR would take off in a bigger way in 2011 but it is still in the silent movie stages. I still think I’m right but it didn’t happen as fast as I thought. Grade = C
Social Media “re-set” – I thought that during the 2012 budget planning process, marketing executives who were caught in the early social media hype would look over their budgets and figure out they’re not getting the traction they expected. Too early to tell if there will be a budget re-set, but I think the anecdotal evidence I hear is that I’m wrong. Small businesses are still catching up of course and the big brands I’m talking to are moving ahead with some pretty advanced stuff. Would like to know what you think. Grade = D
Social scoring takes center stage – A year ago when I made this prediction, nobody had heard of Klout. Yeah, I got this one right. Way right. Grade = A+
Social for the enterprise – I wrote that internal uses of social media was the next big frontier for social media. Since that time, Yammer, a leading enterprise provider, had a nearly 200 percent growth rate according to various reports and now has some type of installation in 80 percent of the Fortune 500 companies. And it’s just getting started. Yes, yes, yes. Grade = A
Micro payments – finally? Facebook started dipping its toe into micro payments in 2010 by giving out free credits to help condition customers use the new credit system. Yes, this is taking off for virtual goods you can buy on Farmville but it is not the general monetization system for art, music and even blogging that I envisioned. Could still happen but not there yet, Grade = D.
OK … Here are four offbeat predictions for 2012:
1) 2012 will be The Year of the Bird. On a percentage basis, Twitter will be the fastest-growing social media platform. It’s not new, it’s not sexy, but right now it is getting hot in high schools and that is where the cool stuff starts. It is also exploding overseas. Watch out for Twitter.
2) Facebook will create alternate universes. Facebook is too freaking complicated and changes too much. And while it grew on the back of teens, Grandma represents the fastest-growing demographic. The platform will have to design user interfaces tailored for different market segments … more analytics for geeks, cool new skins for the kids, a larger typeface for the senior crowd.
3) Crowdsourcing goes enterprise. Crowdsourcing has so much potential but also carries a stigma of unfair labor practices. Based on growth rates calculated by DailyCrowdsourcing.com, it look like this has the potential to finally take off on an enterprise level if companies can be assured of politically-correct and fairly-paid sources of labor.
4) Social Scoring — You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet. Klout stumbled and fumbled in 2011 but they also made breathtaking progress that was rewarded by brands. But the real breakthrough is going to happen in 2012 — Connecting online conversations to offline behavior. It’s already happening in small ways but the real rocket will be the Facebook Timeline. Will work like this: Joey just posted and tweeted about a new record. Facebook Timeline shows Joey’s friends bought the record. Record companies send Joey free stuff.
Along these same lines, I think Klout will continue to dominate this niche in 2012. Although the entry barriers to this niche are really low (come up with an algorithm, attach it to the Twitter API and go), distilling wisdom from that big data takes some fire-power. Klout is far ahead in this respect. However, I do think there is room for social scores based on different influence niches like teens, fashionistas, foodies, politics, and local measures of influence. I also predict Klout Klubs will emerge so topical experts can find each other and interact based on this social proof.
What did I hit? What did I miss? Would love to hear your opinions in the comment section!
Online Games Teach Kids Valuable Work Skills
Dec 27th
By Neicole Crepeau, Contibuting {grow} Columunist
Yes, you heard me right. For all the complaining that our children are too plugged in and too obsessed with online games, I think playing those games is actually teaching our children critical work skills.
The Amazing World of Minecraft
If you haven’t already heard of the indie game Minecraft, you will. This little online computer game is taking the younger gaming world by storm. Middle schoolers through twenty-somethings are flocking to it– it even appeals to girls.
Minecraft is one of several sandbox games that allow you to build in a virtual world. You literally mine for resources and grow food to support yourself. You can work your way up using resources and craftingto build better houses, tools, and weapons.
The game allows you to get quite sophisticated. For example, there is a stone called Redstone that carries electrical charges. Using it in combination with other stones and tools, you can build complex circuitry, allowing you to create railways, automated doors, whatever you can imagine. Doing so requires learning the ins and outs of Minecraft circuits, though: how to create XOR and XNOR logic gates, pistons, repeaters, etc.
If it sounds difficult, it is (I haven’t figured it out, yet). But young Minecraft players—your kids—have been motivated to spend their spare time reading and learning, in order to build some extraordinary and beautiful creations. As with much of life, in Minecraft you have specific rules and a limited set of resources. The goal is to develop the best products you can with what you have, through hard work and creativity.
So, Minecraft players learn how to research and gather the information they need, how to educate themselves, and they apply their creativity to come up with entirely new entities. Compare that with watching TV. There’s more, though.
BHSMinecraft and other Minecraft Servers
To play the multiplayer version of the game, you have to join one of the many Minecraft servers available. These servers are generally built and run for free by players. For example, I play on BHSMinecraft, a server built and maintained by my son’s 17 year old friend. His moniker is HealthyUncle.
Like many server owners, Uncle has spent considerable time and money on his server. He had to acquire and maintain the hardware, learn the technology for hosting a Minecraft server, keep up-to-date with the product releases, find and install mods (add-ons), regularly ensure the mods are compatible with the latest Minecraft release, maintain the server, and provide support to all the players on it. Hmmm, don’t system administrators get paid good salaries to do this kind of work?
In the case of a large, well-run server like BHSMinecraft, management skills are also required. HealthyUncle “employs” various players and friends. He promotes them to moderators or admins on the server. For example, my son is an admin. He gets special privileges in the game (essentially his payment), but is also responsible when he is on the server for keeping griefers at bay (griefers are players who purposely destroy and harass). Moderators make sure players understand and obey the server rules, and help players when needed.
Beyond that, my 16 year old son and HealthyUncle are actively trying to promote BHSMinecraft to get more players. They use Twitter and Facebook, promote on various forums, and are working on marketing plans for their server. They also are working on ways to get more players to “donate” to the server.
These teens are literally getting experience administering a server, building a business, managing others, and marketing. As I told HealthyUncle, this is definitely worthy of going on the college resume and the work resume.
Players learn valuable skills, too
You don’t have to be a server admin to learn valuable work skills, though. There is an entire ecosystem around Minecraft, built and maintained by young people. There are extensive Wiki’s that capture the collective wisdom of players, edited and maintained by the young enthusiasts. Kids create and post videos on YouTube explaining how to build different types of entities or providing tutorials for new players. There are forums for discussing the game and exchanging information. All of this largely created, maintained, and used by your children simply because of their passion for the game. These kids are actively exercising their writing skills and adding to their community by producing and sharing content.
Another important part of the ecosystem that’s developed are mods (modifications). These are add-ons built by third-parties which can be installed and enhance the game. The third-parties? Your kids. Kids are inspired to learn the tools and technology to build the mods they want or think others will want. (My own kids are teaching themselves Blender to build mods for a similar game, Blockland.) Hmmmm, don’t people called Programmers get paid to write code like this?
Kids get exposure to people all over the world, too. I was tickled the other day when I was searching for information about how to accomplish something in the game, and found a video done by a middle-schooler with a Scottish accent. Game players use IRC (real-time chat) during the game, routinely communicating with and making friends with other players from other countries. Similar to the relationships we build through social media, these kids make friends with children from other countries, arranging to meet them again online. What a fantastic experience for kids who will be working in a global marketplace!
They don’t just “play” with the kids they meet online, though. Your kids are collaborating and working together to build something. With various combinations of IRC (chat), Skype, and in-person meetings, kids will work together to design and build houses, interactive art, tools, weapons, etc. My own sons and daughter will often play together in the study, each on their own computer, but working together to build or explore. They’ll turn to talk with one another frequently, discussing who will do what part, suggesting ideas, debating the best approach, and coordinating the work. Likewise, when my kids’ friends come over, they may each take a computer and then work together on some Minecraft task. Keep in mind that these tasks often span weeks or days—not the immediate gratification we’ve been told that games foster.
Online, kids meet up and use IRC or Skype to talk during the game and coordinate. They pool resources, negotiate designs, assign roles to one another. Working together, they mine and build. They also compete, of course, to see who can build the best house or, on servers that allow battles, to defeat one another. Minecraft, like many of these games, can be played as a fighting game. Kids can create weapons and forts or castles. They can kill one another (though, death is only a temporary setback in these games). Even then, though, the kids are collaborating as teams to build their defenses and weapons, coordinate their battle plans, and execute them.
Negotiation, collaboration, communication, self-education, sharing knowledge, team-work, critical-thinking, creativity—aren’t these core skills that we, as employees and business owners, use every single day? Aren’t they some of the hardest skills to teach, but some of the most important for a successful career?
Believe it or not, your kids are learning these skills every time they play Minecraft and online games like it. So, the next time you find yourself fretting about the time your kids are spending online, consider what they are actually spending their time doing. You might not fret as much.
Neicole Crepeau a blogger at Coherent Social Media and the creator of CurateXpress, a content curation tool. She works at Coherent Interactive on social media, website design, mobile apps, & marketing. Connect with Neicole on Twitter at @neicolec
They told us so. An amazing film of the future.
Dec 22nd
If you can’t view the video above, please click here.
This 57-year-old film, recently unearthed by GE, might be the most interesting five minutes you spend all day. It predicts our current technology with uncanny prescience. Among the innovations correctly predicted in this film are:
- DVR
- refrigerator ice-maker
- baby monitor
- Skype
- iPad
- flat-screen, 3D television
- the personal computer
- missile defense system
- and the cell phone.
This charming bit of history was just discovered in the GE archives. It was originally produced to coincide with GE’s “Diamond Jubilee,” or the 75th anniversary of the development of Edison’s lamp in 1879.
It’s hard to get my head around how accurate these predictions were. If we made a film today about 2068, how much do you think we would have correct?
7 Ideas for Advanced Social Media Education
Oct 18th
For the past three years I have been teaching college or graduate level classes in social media marketing. Executives are clamoring for the next level of education in this area and so I’ve been wondering … what would an Advanced Social Media Class look like?
What new skills and ideas would go into the next level of social media education? Where do we go beyond the basic frameworks and strategies?
This is a real, live opportunity and I would love to have your input. In fact PLEASE help out with your ideas in the comment section. Let me prime the pump … here are some ideas I might include in an advanced social media class:
The politics of social media. Many companies are “checking a box” and doing social media (i.e. “we have a Facebook page”) but they are not being social because they have not adapted their traditional broadcasting culture to one that is real-time and reactive. Making the cultural change to really connect with stakeholders at the point of need is extremely difficult and it has to start at the top. Tactics to do this would make for an interesting class, don’t you think? How do you organize to optimize?
Internal applications — Last year I predicted that internal applications for social media would be the next big wave of opportunity for large companies and based on some of the successes we’re seeing this is probably coming true. Yet, this is an under-developed topic in most traditional discussions on social media. I think an exploration of how companies are realizing measurable returns on these programs would be energizing.
Exploring the Digital Divide — I’ve been touring North America with a new speech about the digital layers between companies and customers. A few years ago, every customer interaction was only between real people. Then as we started dumping customer self-service functions on to a website, we created the first digital divide between ourselves and our customers. Today, many customers prefer to be met in the social space instead of a website, creating a second digital divide and further fragmenting marketing efforts. In my speech I articulate four more layers beyond social media and we will need to meet customer needs in all these spaces. I’m working on a blog post on this topic but am having trouble keeping it short!
Return on Influence – In the post “Why Klout Matters” I presented an argument that the ability to create content, move it virally on the social web, and measure reactions to that activity represents an unprecedented opportunity. In the history of sociology, psychology, political science, and marketing, we have never been able to measure this thing called influence. Current measurements like Klout are imperfect, but they are good enough for companies like Disney, Audi, and American Express to use in new word-of-mouth influencer campaigns. This is a big deal and certainly something that should be included in an advanced class.
Integration — Combining social opportunities with traditional advertising seems like the next evolution in marketing but for reasons I don’t totally understand, it’s not gaining traction as fast as I thought it would. I remember watching the Super Bowl ads last year and thinking, “OK, this is going to be the breakthrough event for social and traditional integration,” but there was nothing. Literally nothing. In fact, has there been anything that comes close to the brilliant Old Spice initiative? Are companies keeping these efforts siloed? What are some case studies and best practices?
Beyond Business Marketing — I think it would be interesting to examine social media best practices in areas like HR, PR, politics, government, education, and non-profits. Could probably spend a whole day just on that. There are enormous opportunities in all of these areas.
International — The biggest brands are leaning hard into regional social media platforms such as Renren, Grono and Mixi. How do you navigate the increasingly complex world of fragmented national, regional … even local … sites?
OK, it’s your turn! If you attended a class in advanced social media considerations, what topics would you want to explore?







You’re in marketing for one reason: Grow.
Grow your company, reputation, customers, impact, profits. Grow yourself. This is a community that will help. It will stretch your mind, connect you to fascinating people, and provide some fun along the way. I am so glad you’re here.
-Mark Schaefer








