Entering Protopia and a world of continuous marketing disruption

protopia

By Mark Schaefer

This is the time when we turn to the challenges of the new year and changes we’re likely to face. My prediction for 2017 is that this is the year of marketing protopia. I’m sure this is an unfamiliar concept, so let me explain why this will be the major theme of your professional life for years to come.

Although it may seem like we have been in a world of rapid marketing technology change, we really haven’t. Largely, we have lived in a business world of peaceful evolution.

In the last 50 years, what have been the forces that have completely disrupted marketing?

  • In the 1970s, there was one: cable television.
  • The 1980s saw the dawn of the Internet and mobile technology but change from a marketing standpoint was incredibly slow. In fact, most business leaders at the time viewed the internet as a passing fad and saw no commercial value in it.
  • The 1990s brought about some early advertising and web-based marketing as search became a mainstream utility but again, change came about over a period of years.
  • By the mid-2000s we witnessed a true information revolution enabled by smartphones and social media. But change still occurred in fits and starts — Ten years later, many companies are still just getting into social media and mobile marketing. It’s been a joke among my marketing friends that it has been “The Year of Mobile” for the past five years!

My point is that we may think of ourselves as being in a revolution but it’s been relatively slow and steady iterations. 98 percent of all marketing investments have been in the same seven social media platforms for the last four years. And by the way, Snapchat, the hot newcomer, has been around since 2012.

The martech space is awash with hundreds of lookalike companies offering little in terms of revolutionary points of differentiation. All that is about to change.

The Protopian Era

In 2017 the era of sluggish marketing change will be over, forever. Vast new technological capabilities are sweeping over the landscape, ushering in an era where the very psychology of the marketing function will be forced to change.

Before I get into these changes, let’s get back to this idea of “protopia.”

In his seminal book The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, author Kevin Kelly describes protopia as a state of becoming, rather than a destination. In the protopia era, progress is not happening in fits and starts, it is happening continuously every single day.

I can see this world before us now. While we may have had time to digest and master incremental changes to a Facebook algorithm or a new opportunity for native advertising, the new pace of change will certainly dispel the notion that anybody can be an expert in anything.

Kelly writes that from here on out, every professional will always be a “newbie.”

He explains, “First, most of the important technologies that will dominate life 30 years from now have not yet been invented, so naturally you’ll be a newbie to them. Second, because the new technology requires endless upgrades, you will remain in the newbie state. Third, because the cycle of obsolescence is accelerating (the average lifespan of a phone app is a mere 30 days!), you won’t have time to master anything before it is displaced, so you will remain in the newbie mode forever. Endless Newbie is the new default for everyone, no matter your age or experience.”

The tech sweeping marketing

I agree that in 2017 we will all become endless newbies because we’re entering what amounts to a new operating system for the marketing profession.

Foremost among these shifts is artificial intelligence. While we see ads about IBM’s Watson perform gimmicky party tricks like designing a glowing dress or a personalized cocktail, the true impact of cognitive computing will be profound as it is finally understood and commercialized. Task-specific pipelines into these AI supercomputers will fuel everything from human-like chatbots to automated marketing programs that create strategies … and execute them (including writing, optimizing, promoting, and measuring the content).

This contributes to the protopian landscape because artificial intelligence will create change that creates even faster change.

Another protopian force in marketing will be virtual and augmented reality. The geeky black VR headsets are mainstream technology, ushering in a revolution in how we connect and communicate with customers.

I see virtual reality as a marketing “re-set.” The backlash against annoying marketing and invasive advertising has resulted in filters, ad blocking, and consumer mistrust. Connecting through the entirely new platform of virtual reality gives marketers a chance to say “We’re sorry. Can we try this again? This time the value will be real.” At least, that’s my hope.

AR/VR offers companies the opportunity to lure consumers out of their filter bubbles with awesome immersive experiences.

The third transformational trend will be security … or the perhaps the lack of it. We hear about just a small fraction of the nefarious hacks holding companies and individuals hostage. How does marketing change when customers can’t trust the eCommerce systems that hold their financial information and deliver their products? Today it is concern, but the situation is getting worse — much worse — and every newly-connected node is another vulnerability point.

Implications

What does this mean to me and you? I’m not sure yet other than I’m feeling a bit dizzy!

I do think there will be a role for humans in this protopian world, but it might mean micro-specialization — becoming experts on small chunks of the marketing technology puzzle. In a world where marketing strategy can be commoditized, these trends provide an opportunity for exceptional human minds that can distill competitive advantage through insight (at least for now). And I think it is going to eventually mean a lot of job loss as more and more traditional marketing functions are automated.

This will certainly challenge company cultures. A wider gap will form between those who can adopt and adjust and those who cannot.

I also think this is a technological era that will solve huge problems for both companies and consumers. Ironically AI technology will mean a more human experience, a more respectful and intimate web experience. We’ll be able to connect with perfect sales or service experience every time.

In any event, I look forward to exploring these ideas with you on {grow}, this year and beyond. What are your thoughts on the change and challenge ahead?

sxsw-2016-3Mark Schaefer is the chief blogger for this site, executive director of Schaefer Marketing Solutions, and the author of several best-selling digital marketing books. He is an acclaimed keynote speaker, college educator, and business consultant. The Marketing Companion podcast is among the top business podcasts in the world. Contact Mark to have him speak to your company event or conference soon.

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  • Steve Woodruff

    I just wonder if one of the backlash effects of this perpetual tsunami of tech-driven change will be the return (and I think we’re already seeing this) of human-centered, person-to-person promotion. We’re re-wiring our world at a rapid pace but I’m not convinced that human beings are so easily changed. Our DNA remains….human.

  • I agree, Steve. I think people are starting to crave the more human touch. The millenials all want authentic living, and to me, that means they want person-to-person interactions, not all machine-oriented, even though they’ve grown up with computers and the internet.

  • These changes definitely make one dizzy! I think what you quoted by Kevin Kelly is spot-on. I’ve been feeling this way for quite some time. It’s become nearly impossible to master anything. I took on a tiny piece of the tech world by becoming an Evernote Certified Consultant last fall because I love the possibilities of that app, yet I feel as though mastery is a long ways off because Evernote continues to evolve. I continue to learn new things every day. Multiply that over the many, many tech platforms available and still to come, and yes, we will be newbies forever now.

    I do speculate, however, that rather than a lot of jobs being lost, they might actually just be re-invented. When the industrial age arrived, there were similar fears of jobs being lost, but people just re-trained and learned to work different jobs. I think that’s what’s going to happen here.

    I’m very involved with robotics and many people fear all that robotic automation will replace people in industries that implement them. And it will to a certain degree. But those people can retrain for other jobs such as maintaining the robotic creations (I know someone doing exactly that for GE) or innovating and creating new things (one of the clients I market is an inventor of a simple, but brilliant, medical device). The world of engineering is growing and there’s great need for people to train for those fields. Plus, we will always have a need for people able to repair everything – cars, appliances, computers. And let’s not forget that plumbers and electricians and other trades will stay in demand.

    I think your post that resilience is important in 2017 is key to handling all of these tech changes. Learn, adapt, and continue to move forward. If I hadn’t done that over the last 26 years of being in business, we would have been done a long time ago.

  • Steve Woodruff

    I love tech and I’ve chased it for years. There’s transformation and fascination there. BUT – how much of our business (for the vast majority of companies/professionals) comes via tech channels, vs. good old-fashioned human referrals? I’m betting on the latter as the most powerful marketing force ever unleashed. For countless millennia backward and forward.

  • I think most of the changes we see as consumers will be almost invisible — and good. But from the perspective of marketing leadership, I think there will be a lot of angst with this!

  • Most economists predict significant and permanent job loss. Yes, new jobs will spring up, but not enough to make up the difference. Entire career paths will be eliminated. Some countries see this coming and are starting to prepare for less work by providing a minimum salary. I believe one of the Scandanavian countries did this already. The idea is to re-distribute profits from bots to humans.

    Thanks for the great comment and thanks for reading my blog Sandee!

  • Steve, your comments are on target. Vendors’ promises have urged marketers in search of magic bullets to adopt every gadget and gimmick that comes down the pike. Customers want relationships with peers, not bots, and always will. Go see “Rogue One,” for proof. :))

  • Two thoughts this perceptive article brings to me: (1) Your comment: “And I think it is going to eventually mean a lot of job loss as more and more traditional marketing functions are automated.” reminds me of a key theme in Andrew Keen’s book “The Internet Is Not the Answer.” His example of Kodak’s destruction by digital technology dramatically supports what you say because 100,000+ jobs were lost and far fewer were gained. Schumpter’s historical concept of “Creative Destruction” (Wikipedia: “a process of industrial mutation that incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one”) once resulted in even more and better jobs. Disruption through Technology innovation appears too often to be a negative sum game (in terms of jobs gained) that could turn his theory on its head. (2) Your comment: “The third transformational trend will be security … or the perhaps the lack of it.” Talk about disruption potential! Visualize the result (in a few short years) the moment hackers invade robotic car systems during rush hour. I wouldn’t want to be on the road – or close to it.

  • Thanks for the insightful commentary Jim. I agree on all points.

  • I get what you are saying, but do you think that mankind has lost its ability to innovate and adapt in the face of jobs being lost? I think we are creative beings and when we are motivated by hunger (as much of our historical past was, before all the welfare and government programs), people figured out a way to make a living so they could eat. The change today is just what you said. The government is going to take care of people by paying them just enough to live on. Where I come from, that has only resulted in allowing people to indulge in their laziness and allow the government to take care of them instead of being productive citizens. I’m not suggesting we let people starve or become homeless, but I am saying we need to allow a certain amount of motivation to drive people to get out and work. They benefit from it in more ways than financial. Working is good for people. Paying them a subsistence is just a subtle form of slavery, IMHO.

  • I’m not offering an original opinion here. This is the general view of economists much smarter than me. Of course there will be new types of jobs but the new jobs created won’t keep up with the number of jobs lost. Also I think there will be a chasm between abilities. There is a large call center near my home that laid off about two-thirds of its staff due to automation. The whole thing will be gone in two years. Will those low-level customer service reps re-train to be computer coders? Robotic engineers? AI experts? Probably not. Interesting times ahead.

  • Pingback: 8 Things I Learned in 2016 - Jessica Ann Media()

  • Very interesting and I do agree with the writer. I know there will be job loss but I want to remain optimistic.

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