New research shows Facebook impacting behaviors in formative years
Apr 11th
Guest post by {grow} community member Tom Webster
My friend Mark Schaefer wrote a provocative piece in this very space yesterday about why Facebook will become the most dangerous company on earth. Perhaps he underestimated the problem.
One of Mark’s central observations — that a public company must find ways to grow, and Facebook’s only path to do that is through you and me — was particularly insightful and, for some, alarming. I’ve been studying Facebook for five years as a researcher, and after seeing our most recent data on social media behaviors I can tell you this: It’s scarier than you think.
In data that my company (Edison Research) just released yesterday, we found that 54% of all Americans age 12 and over have a personal profile on Facebook. This represents some modest growth over last year’s 51%, but not hockey-stick growth, so one might be tempted to see Facebook’s rise as slowing down, especially when that growth is trended over the past five years.
Not so fast. Numbers like “54%” don’t tell the full story.
First of all, it is important to know this: in the same report, we show the percentage of Americans 12+ who have a personal profile on any social network as 56%, and no other network is even remotely close to Facebook. When we talk about social media in this country we are talking about Facebook, plain and simple. The other thing to note about that 54% is it’s an average that masks some intriguing demographic disparities. Note the breakdown of social media usage by demographic below: (and remember, Facebook is used by 96+% of these Americans)
There are two important stories here.
The first speaks to the saturation that Mark wrote about, but in a different light. For the second year in a row, the growth for Facebook has really been people aged 45 and over. Indeed, the 12-34 demographic has largely been static since 2010. Certainly, it isn’t wrong to think that it’s pretty much all ashore that’s going ashore with younger demographics. And, as Mark correctly pointed out, as Facebook’s growth with older demos slows, the company will need to find ways to wring more data out of us in order to feed their shareholders’ insatiable hunger for growth.
The second story, however, is more subtle. As I noted earlier, usage by the 12-24′s haven’t really grown appreciably since 2010. But look where they are “stalled” — at an 80% adoption rate. Now, getting 80% of American youth to do anything is an unbelievably powerful construct to get your head around.
You can’t find any other media property remotely close to that. Heck, 80% of 12-24s don’t have smartphones, or landlines, or read the newspaper, let alone use any one brand or product. That 80% use of social media (i.e. Facebook) is remarkable, to say the least.
Eventually, those 24-year-olds turn 25, and those 34-year-olds turn 35, and so on. Gradually, as these younger demographics age into older demographics, they will take these learned behaviors with them. In that sense, it’s like smoking. Facebook has changed the behavior of Americans in their formative years, and they will take those learned behaviors with them.
With nearly 8 out of 10 young Americans making Facebook the hub of their online lives — and, thus, their lives – the ways in which they consume and share information have changed irrevocably.
Consider the number of Americans who have the “social habit” and check their profiles several times every day — while Facebook’s Edgerank algorithm prioritizes the information they receive based upon our personal interactions — and you can begin to see just how much sway Facebook holds over what we know as Americans. These 12-24s are literally growing up with the news and information they are exposed to being curated by their friends. And by Facebook.
As a parent I am keeping a wary eye on this. Garbage in, garbage out, as they say.
What do you think? Am I overreacting? What do you see in the data?
Tom Webster is Vice President of Strategy for Edison Research, a custom market research company best known as the sole providers of Exit Polling data during U.S. Elections for all the major news networks. Webster specializes in drawing insight from social media data, and writes about these topics at www.brandsavant.com. Follow him on Twitter at @Webby2001.
Why Facebook will become the most dangerous company on earth
Apr 10th
Within the next 60 days, an event will occur that may be the most devastating development in the young history of social media and for the businesses and individuals who love it so much.
Facebook is going to become a publicly-traded company.
If you have ever worked for a public company you can relate to what I am about to say. If you haven’t you’ll have to trust me.
The pressure of “public”
The entire tone of Facebook and its strategy is about to change in ways that I believe could portend desperation and disaster. Instead of managing for a long-term vision, becoming a public company creates an inexorable and relentless pressure to meet quarterly sales goals. If you have ever been an executive in a publicy-traded company, other than hearing “A crew from 60 Minutes is at the door,” there is probably no greater pressure in business than the demand to grow, grow, grow the revenues — To “beat the street,” without exception, without fail.
Maybe it will will take a few months, maybe it will take a year or more, but inevitably the marching orders of Facebook executives will be determined by this constant drumbeat of “more, higher, faster.”
Now, what is the source of Facebook’s growing revenues? You and me.
Virtually the entire economic model of Facebook is based on a single tactic — collect as much personal information about you as possible as a way to sell highly-targeted ads. So for Facebook to succeed, it simply must collect increasing amounts of information about you. More information = more ad revenues. Pretty simple.
Through this lens, we can now view Facebook’s new Timeline innovation as a clever move. The company encourages us to post and share everything about our lives, which will lead to more advertising opportunities. And, you can be assured that every new feature and innovation will be aimed at two things: 1) collect more information and 2) create “stickiness” so you spend more time on the site (to share information and view ads).
Is this sustainable?
So we have to consider — Is this relentless collection of information and selling of ads sustainable in a way that meets Wall Street’s expectations for continuous and aggressive growth?
At least in the near term, Facebook’s prospects seem bright. They are just starting to mine Timeline information. The possibility of organic growth in new countries like China present vast opportunities for data collection and advertising.
But will we reach a saturation point where it becomes impossible for Facebook to squeeze any more information from us? Will we reach a day when Facebook’s insatiable need for data becomes annoying and invasive? Is there a theoretical limit to information gathering? Is there an upper limit to the amount of time people will spend on Facebook?
The other collision point is that the advertising model is in transition. Smartphones are already the first screen of Internet access for 28 percent of Americans and in some parts of the world (like the Middle East), it is already over 50 percent. Compare how many ads you see displayed on your computer versus the smartphone version of Facebook and you will begin to see the crunch Facebook will be facing.
Google, which went public in 2004, faces exactly the same problem of course and I think the pressure is starting to show. I found it extremely odd when the company (who professes to never be “evil”) knowingly took a detour around anti-ad-tracking features on Apple’s iPhone to spy on our private information. They stopped the practice only after being caught by the Wall Street Journal. Apple vowed to stop the Google’s shady practices.
Why would Google do something this stupid? Well, by now you already know the answer — as a public company, Google is under incredible pressure to collect our private information to sell ads.
Similarly, executive bonuses are tied to the success of Google +. What kind of behavior will this drive at the company, when vast personal fortunes are at stake … and the platform increasingly appears to be a ghost town?
What will be the answer to the pressure for growth?
This is a glimpse of what we will one day see from Facebook, too. Undoubtedly they will look for adjacencies and new sources of revenue but nothing in the foreseeable future will come close to making a dent in their reliance on ad revenues.
At some point, Facebook will be faced with a reality — the well of personal information will be tapped dry. The opportunity to create advertising impressions will slow. Mark Zuckerberg will face unimaginable pressure from Wall Street and his shareholders. His company will have to find new ways to turn their vast resource — our personal information — into new sources of profits.
And at that point, Facebook will become the most dangerous company on earth.
How does this perspective land on you?
An inside view of the blogging process
Apr 8th
Mitch Joel recently threw down the the gauntlet and challenged a number of bloggers to blog about how they blog (does that make sense?) I highly recommend you read his original article called “Watching me Blog.” I only caution you about trying to match Mitch’s pace. There is Mitch, and then there is the rest of us!
Here is an insight into my typical blogging process:
THE BIRTH OF A BLOG POST
I am constantly bombarded with ideas so collecting inspiration for topics is a continuous process. I may have an idea from something I see on TV, something I read, or a question from a student in class. The trick is to have the discipline to capture these ideas when they occur. As soon as I can, I record these topics as a headline in WordPress, nothing more. That way, when it is time to blog, I have a wide selection of potential topics.
I currently have about 70 ideas in the hopper. Some of them will never see the light of day. Maybe some of them will be combined or trashed. Some of them you will see this week!
TIME TO WRITE
I usually do all of my blogging for the week in about a 3-4 hour period on a weekend morning. It has to be quiet with no distractions. In this period my goal is to write at least two blog posts for the upcoming week. Usually I can write though an idea quickly but sometimes it takes adding and massaging over a couple of weeks to flesh out a big new idea.
During this quiet time I JUST WRITE. I don’t necessarily spend a lot of time trying to be perfect right off the bat. Editing and refining can come later.
I also try to write ahead if I can so I have a few completed posts in case something happens and I can’t blog for some personal reason. I have about 10 posts in reserve. I rarely write during the week unless there is a short-term topical opportunity.
FINAL FLOURISHES
On Sunday night I’ll figure out what posts I’m going to publish for the week. I’ll take a last look at these pieces, do a final edit, and then “decorate” them with illustrations or graphics as needed. I don’t often get feedback on the funny illustrations I come up with, but in my mind this is one of the fun reasons to come to the {grow} blog and it is a creative challenge for me to come up with something that will make you snicker. My rule is that if I can’t execute an illustration idea in 10 minutes, I move on to something else. I have to be very disciplined about the time I spend on blogging.
At this point I’ll also spend some more time on the headline. Headlines are so important — more important than the actual blog copy because if you don’t grab your reader’s attention, they’ll never even get to the copy. I find headlines very difficult to write. They must be accurate, descriptive, interesting and most of all, “tweetable!” You have to make your posts easy to share!
PUBLISH
I have never posted an article that I have been completely happy with, and many times I’m a little nervous about what the reaction might be. Ultimately it takes courage to be an effective blogger, to put yourself out there, to be confident enough to be imperfect, and to take your licks.
My decision on what to publish is often determined by my work schedule. If I think a post will generate a lot of comments, I won’t publish that on a day that I can’t pay attention to the comment section. I post from one of the amazing {grow} contributing columnists on Wednesdays and a cartoon on Friday so I know I will have at least those days completely free to do client work.
COMMENTS
The best part of the blog is the community commentary. Here is my philosophy on comments:
- Comments are an opportunity to celebrate the people in your community.
- When people offer you a gift of their precious time to provide a comment, it only makes sense to give them a gift back and at least say “thank you.” I try to acknowledge most comments.
- Comments build community. This is where you create meaningful connections. I have written a lot about power and influence on the social web. In my estimation, the blog comment section is where the action is (and ironically it is not considered in a Klout score!).
- If you put yourself out there, you’re not going to connect with every person, every time, even in a community of well-intentioned professionals. Don’t be thrown off-center by criticism. It’s a sign that you took risks. Take the high rode, stay positive.
Secret Words. A {growtoon}.
Apr 6th
Join the growtoonists each Friday for a humorous take on marketing, social media, and current business events.
Joey Strawn is a social media strategist that loves enjoying a good book and then drawing in it. Check him out on Twitter: @joey_strawn
Welcome to {grow}
You’re in marketing for one reason: Grow.
Grow your company, reputation, customers, impact, profits. Grow yourself. This is a community that will help. It will stretch your mind, connect you to fascinating people, and provide some fun along the way. I am so glad you’re here.
-Mark SchaeferFollow Mark
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